- At the end of 2022, global house prices fell in real terms for the first time in 12 years, by 2% year on year (yoy) in aggregate. This reflected a moderation in nominal house prices, which are now growing less rapidly (+6% yoy) than consumer prices.
- The decline in real house prices was particularly marked in advanced economies (AEs) (–2.7% yoy), contrasting with the previous quarter’s increase. Prices continued to fall in emerging market economies (EMEs) (–1.5%).
- Important differences remain across major economies. For instance, real house prices surged in Türkiye (51%) and grew more modestly in Japan (+4%), but were flat in the United States and declined by 10% or more in Germany, Australia and Canada.
- In real terms, global house prices remain a solid 24% above the average posted after the Great Financial Crisis, by 34% in AEs and 17% in EMEs.
- The BIS commercial property price data set has continued to expand, now including data for Argentina, France, Slovenia and Spain for the first time.
Summary of latest developments
In the last quarter of 2022, global real house prices started to fall by 2% yoy after more than a decade of uninterrupted positive growth.1 This development reflected a slowdown in nominal price increases, to 6.0%, combined with continued strong growth in consumer prices.2
Real house prices fell for the first time in AEs since 2012, falling by 2.7% yoy, in sharp contrast to the 0.7% increase recorded in Q3 2022. In EMEs, prices fell further, by 1.5% after a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter (Graph 1), driven by decreases in Asia and Latin America (–4.5% and –4.0%, respectively).
Country-level data show that the decline in real house prices has been spreading across jurisdictions, affecting 80% of AEs and 70% of EMEs. Moreover, four out of 10 countries are now registering price declines of more than 5% (Graph 2).3
Despite their very recent fall, global real residential prices still remain well above their pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels (by 7% in aggregate). Compared with Q4 2019, they have increased by 120% in Türkiye, close to 20% in the United States, and between 10 and 15% in Australia, Japan and Korea. In contrast, real prices have fallen by 9% in India, and between 4 and 6% in Brazil, Indonesia, Italy and South Africa since the end of 2019 (Graph 3).
From a longer-term perspective, global house prices now exceed (in real terms) their immediate post-Great Financial Crisis (GFC) average by 24% (34% for AEs and 17% for EMEs) (Table 1). Among the G20 economies, real prices have more than doubled since 2010 in Türkiye (+127%) and they have risen by around 60% in Canada, India and the United States. At the other end of the scale, they remain well below their post-GFC levels in Italy, by 29%.
In aggregate for the group of AEs, real residential property prices declined by 2.7% in Q4 2022, marking a sharp reversal from the 0.7% increase observed the quarter before (Q3 2022). They rose by 4% in Japan and were broadly stable in the United States (0%) and the United Kingdom (–1%). Double-digit declines were recorded in Australia (10%), Canada (10%) and New Zealand (16%) (Graph 4).
Real house prices fell further in the euro area (–6%), where developments continued to vary significantly among member states. Prices were stable in Portugal (+1%) and in France and Spain (both –1%). They declined by 5% in the Netherlands, 8% in Italy and, notably, by 12% in Germany (Graph 5).
Emerging market economies
Real residential property prices continued to fall in EMEs during the fourth quarter of 2022, by 1.5% yoy (versus –0.7% in Q3 2022).
Prices declined in all major Asian economies, by 4.5% in aggregate. They fell by 1% in Thailand, 3% in India and Indonesia, and 5% in China and Korea (Graph 6).
Real prices also sagged in Latin America (–4.0% in aggregate), driven mainly by the large decline in Brazil (–6%), while prices remained stable in Mexico. Among central and eastern European countries (+15.1% in aggregate), real property prices surged by 51% in Türkiye and declined in Poland (–7%). Lastly, prices fell by 4% in South Africa (Graph 7).
The BIS has continued to extend the coverage of its residential and commercial property price data sets in line with the recommendations of the second phase of the G20-endorsed Data Gaps Initiative (DGI II). Most recently, the BIS started to publish commercial property price indicators (CPPIs) for Argentina, France, Slovenia and Spain.➀ Data for Argentina are restricted to offices and retail premises in Buenos Aires and prices are expressed in US dollars. The series for France and Spain cover the whole country, and the prime locations in the major cities.➁ In addition, CPPI data for Spain are available for each market segment (industrial, office, retail). CPPIs for Slovenia are compiled for the office and retail sectors.
Despite the ongoing expansion of the BIS data set, CPPIs are available only for 23 countries (and 10 G20 economies), well below the number of jurisdictions covered in the residential property price indicators (RPPIs) data set (61, including all G20 economies). Moreover, CPPIs are less comparable across countries than RPPIs. For instance, for several jurisdictions, their coverage is limited to major cities or a few market segments.➂ Moreover, in a number of cases, CPPIs are released only at annual or half-yearly frequencies. Lastly, some of the indicators are experimental and tend to be released with significant lags.
➀ The new series are listed at www.bis.org/statistics/pp/newseries.htm. ➁ The series for France are still experimental. ➂ The country-specific coverage is shown at www.bis.org/statistics/pp_inventory_commercial.pdf.